Clay moves the whole time it's in your hands — through drying and firing. Use this to plan your size before you even wedge the clay.
Any one measurement works — height, diameter, width, whatever you're tracking. Clay shrinks the same % in every direction, so pick one and stick with it.
Clay shrinks once as it dries, then again in the kiln. The percentage above is both combined — the full change from wet to fired.
A cup shrinks in three directions at once — height, width, and depth — so it loses more space inside than you'd expect. At 12.5% shrinkage, it holds about a third less than before.
Different clays shrink by different amounts. The numbers above are averages — check your clay's bag for the exact rate, and test a small piece if precision matters.